Nudgee – QLD 2020

Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

This is one seat I won’t be watching on election night, very safe.

I don’t believe the poll for a second that has the LNP ahead 54-46 in Lilley. It is a biased poll that had very few people polled. And there were allot of undecides on the poll that won’t admit to backing Labor. There is no chance the coalition do even better than their high watermark in QLD in 2019. According to that polls logic, Labor would be looking at a 1975 result in QLD. And that was 45 years ago. It was that lopsided it will never ever happen again unless Albanese is caught shitting on the streets. The best I see the coalition doing in QLD next time federally is status quo. Not losing Blair,Lilly and Oxley. Keep dreaming conservatives. Same people who think Trumps winning 2020 and same people having National winning NZ as well. Won’t happen. The north-eastern area of Brisbane is rock solid Labor and Nudgee is no exception to that

Daniel,

I don’t mean to be rude, but you also said that Labor would win in 2019.

That poll should be rightly questioned – it’s only a single poll. However, Labor ignore potential warning signs at their own peril.

Wow Daniel. Aren’t you the guy predicting ALP successes on the evening of the Brisbane Council elections? No seats won? Lilley is changing, and Annika Wells will struggle to hold on. It’s not “rock solid” mate.

Sorry moderate, but Labor has no chance of losing a seat they even held onto in 2013 and 2004, they lost it in 1996 from the backlash of the Keating gov in QLD only to regain it back 2 years later. The council election’s tend to vote against who is in power statewide And Labor still got a general swing to them even if it didnt translate, the LNP never gained any seats. QLD don’t want conservatives. They don’t want someone who denies climate change and opposes gay marriage. Turnbull was more liked than any other modern liberal leader by swing voters in QLD, the reason he lost ground in QLD was because 1st term goverments always get swings against them. You don’t know QLD well enough especially the south-east corner if you think we are conservatives. Labor lost because older voter’s didn’t want to pay more tax and have cuts to their pensions. Negative gearing didn’t cost them votes, we don’t even need NG, Morrison only won for the same reason John Major won in 1992. Tax. As long as Labor dont run the same campaign they did last time they will win. Morrison isn’t even that popular without the Covid response, why do you think the national polls are close right now despite the virus response? He’s not universally liked and Labor would be well ahead without the virus. However the LNP may have been ahead in QLD without the virus. New voters overwhelming rejected the coalition last time. And as long as the trend with new voters continue, the coalition will struggle to hold onto Brisbane seats but they still will hold onto regional seats. Brisbane is changing, Look at London. They used vote conservative 30 years ago. Now it’s a hardcore Labor city, and Australian cities won’t be any different. The Liberal party is equivalent of the USA tea party. Not popular here.

Sorry Daniel, I can’t let your assertions slide unchallenged.

Though I am fond of historical comparisons, 1996 and 2004 were decades ago. Demographics change. There are plenty of examples of seats which withstand the tide one year, but then fall surprisingly easily another year. A good example in QLD is Moreton – held all throughout the Howard years and yet Labor held since 2007.

It’s a bit tough to claim that Brisbane is a Labor city when the LNP have held city hall for 15 years. Given the LNP’s dominance, Labor’s swing was pathetic and cannot simply be considered an artefact of the ward-based electoral system. Indeed, Labor still haven’t made up ground to match where they were in 2004. Not much to be proud of really. I wouldn’t be citing examples from elsewhere because every country is different. London’s shift in particular, has been caused in large part due to substantial immigration which is not present in Brisbane.

You’ve got no evidence to suggest that Turnbull was liked by swing voters. The only evidence we have is the election – Turnbull suffered a swing of nearly 3%. I don’t know how you maintain that’s evidence of popularity but there you go.

Every commentator tried to suggest that SEQ would behave differently to NQ in 2019. Except that didn’t happen at all. In reality, you’ve got it backwards. History suggests that the anomaly is why QLD votes Labor at the state level, not why it votes LNP at every other level. In my opinion it’s pretty clear; State Labor can be as parochial and conservative as necessary to win voters whereas Federal Labor is stuck appealing to voters across multiple conflicting constituencies (lefties in Melbourne, workers in Cairns etc).

Ah, the demographics equals destiny argument. The issue is that your entire premise rests on voters voting the same way as they age. That’s a big ‘if’.

Ultimately, making assertions based on inexorable political maxims – ‘Labor will win because QLD is a Labor state’ – is flawed at best.

Labor very nearly lost Lilley last time. No idea if the LNP even tweaked it was winnable. Blair is the bigger risk as there seems to be emerging evidence that high PHON vote areas have become stronger for the LNP (eg that same Lilley poll for Hunter).

On the other hand Labor has nothing to worry about in Nudgee, Sandgate and Stafford, unless Greens mount a serious challenge in Stafford (maybe 2024 if they hit targets this year)

Daniel has Brisbane mixed up, it was a conservative city but old school Labor, Clem Jones… but its drifting Liberal as we get higher incomes, appreciate nightlife, cafe culture etc.

Wreathy, Daniel said he will be a first time voter. I can understand bright eyed bushy tailed, my first vote was Newman’s loss! Just need life experience to see a broad range of perspectives.

Lilley is definitely changing and is winnanble for LNP but I can also see regional seats being lost, like Flynn.

BJA those things you listed may have driven up Liberal votes in the 80s, but now those things tend to make your area Green and as a result keep ALP healthy through preferences. The main political realignment is age (young people solidy Labor/Green, over 65 solidly LNP) but regional and outer suburban blue collar voters are drifting to right wing parties and not just in Australia. Flynn might never go back to the ALP column.

Labor shouldn’t sleep on Lilley but I can see it being a seat that Labor will be competitive in for the long term , especially if they keep a grip on Nudgee et al.

Labor’s first preference vote in Stafford is massive, nearly 50%. Greens’ is less than 20. I don’t see it making the target list even in 2024, not least of which because they’re very unlikely to hit their 7 target seats this election anyway. Otherwise I agree with everything John said.

Prediction: ALP Retain